A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
